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The NBER does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP.
According to the above timeline, this should occur in the summer of 1996, when the Prime Minister was John Major, whose immediate predecessor was a woman (Margaret Thatcher).
For example, in Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, both 1 September and 2 September are given as Mondays and, in Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, Buckbeak's trial is set on 20 April, but careful parsing of the text reveals that it could have happened no later than February.
One such example occurs in Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban when Sybill Trelawney refers to 16 October as Friday, although 16 October 1993 was a Saturday.
This is usually explained as artistic licence on the author's part.
Despite its problems, this timeline is extensively used by fans and Warner Bros.'s timeline of the series (featured on the DVDs for Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets and Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban) contains dates that were interpolated from this dating system (such as Harry's birthday being on 31 July 1980 and his first defeat of Lord Voldemort being on 31 October 1981.) However, several anachronisms have crept through in the movies, such as featuring the destruction of the Millennium Bridge in the film version of Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, even though the novel (and the film) are supposed to take place two years before the bridge was built.
In Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, the Dursleys are seen to have a flat-screen television, which were not commonly available in the mid-1990s.
(Although one could imagine a scenario in which Fudge was delegated by the Minister for Magic to meet with the Prime Minister while he, Fudge, was in an inferior office.) Additionally, the personality and history of the Prime Minister portrayed appears to more closely match that of Tony Blair than of John Major.